On November 6, 2012, citizens of the United States went to the polls to decide what direction the country would take over the next two and four years. When the votes were counted, it seems that all of the bad press and the terrible approval numbers garnered by members of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate still could not cause voters to “throw the bums out.”
Indeed, the results of the Congressional elections have left everything in Washington exactly the same as they were before the election. For the private club industry, that is both good and bad news. It is good news because those who have supported our interests were re-elected and bad news because we were unable to elect more pro-club congressmen and senators to the 113th Congress.
Results in the House of Representatives
As expected, there was no massive turnover in the House of Representatives after November 6. Though more than 80 new individuals were elected to the “people’s House,” most of them are from the same party as the congressmen they replaced. In the end, Republicans lost a net total of eight seats, but retained the majority.
With redistricting, the makeup of almost every congressional district in the country changed significantly. While that caused the outcome in many races to be a foregone conclusion, there were 63 races that were very tight, and they ultimately helped determine the final balance of power in the House.
On the Republican side, the GOP picked up 10 of those seats. They flipped seats in Arkansas and Oklahoma, which gave them control of the entire House delegation. In addition, their three-seat gain in North Carolina was the largest net GOP gain.
For Democrats, they flipped 18 of the contested seats held by Republicans. In the Northeast, they regained control of the New Hampshire House delegation by ousting the two incumbent Republican congressmen. In addition, they flipped four seats in both California and Illinois—their largest gain.
As for the remaining 35 highly competitive seats, the party that had control before the election defended all those races. Thus, the final balance of power is 234 Republicans – 201 Democrats.
With the GOP maintaining control, their leadership team was easily re-elected by their fellow Republicans. Rep. John Boehner (Ohio) was elected the party’s choice to be Speaker of the House, Rep. Eric Cantor (Va.) was re-elected Majority Leader, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) was re-elected as Majority Whip.
While the Democrats did gain seats in the next Congress, they did not regain the majority. Though this could be seen as reason to oust their current leadership team, Democrats did not follow that course. Rep. Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) was retained as the Minority Leader, Rep. Steny Hoyer (Md.) was re-elected as the Minority Whip, and Rep. James Clyburn (S.C.) was re-elected as Assistant Minority Leader.
For the private club industry, the maintenance of the status quo in the House of Representatives will likely be a benefit. The House has consistently focused on pro-growth, pro-business and pro-club issues for the past two years. Those Republicans elected in 2012 hold many of the same positions that were occupied by members in the previous Congress. Therefore, the House should be a reliable partner for our industry when the new members are sworn-in.
Results in the Senate
Without doubt, the real battle on Election Day was for control of the Senate. On November 6, Democrats controlled the chamber with a 53–47 majority. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) party not only retained its majority, but it also added a net total of two members to its ranks.
Prior to the election, many observers felt this was the year Republicans would take back the Senate. The Democrats were in the unenviable position of defending 23 seats while Republicans only had to worry about 10.
To make matters worse, seven of those 23 Democrats decided to retire, which left the party to defend seats with unproven candidates. Even by their own standards, Democrats had major concerns with four of the seven open seat races (Neb., N.D., Va., and Wis.). In addition, Democrats had at least three other races that pitted vulnerable incumbents against viable Republicans (Fla., Mo., and Mont.).
On the other hand, the Republicans only had only three retirements, and two of those races were never going to flip to the Democrats (Ariz. and Texas). As for the third open seat race (Maine), Republicans knew they would be unable to hold the seat, but that was okay because of the other pickup opportunities available. It seemed like it could be a good night for the GOP… and then the roof caved in.
Of the four open seat races, Republicans managed to win only one— Nebraska. Virginia and Wisconsin voters gave the Democratic candidates healthy victories while the Democrat in North Dakota won with 50 percent of the vote. As for the three Democratic Senators in the greatest jeopardy of losing, those Florida, Montana and Missouri incumbents all won by at least four percentage points.
Not only did Republicans fail to take advantage of the low-hanging Senate fruit, but also they soon found that they had some weak candidates of their own.
Indiana’s incumbent Republican Senator was defeated in the primary, but it still seemed a sure thing that Republicans would hold on to that seat. However, the GOP candidate proceeded to alienate many voters with an answer during a debate held in the final weeks of the campaign, and his fate was sealed.
In Massachusetts, the incumbent Republican Senator had to deal with an overwhelming Democratic voter advantage in the state.
In Maine, the race went exactly as the Republicans had assumed. The Independent candidate won, and he then decided to caucus with the Democrats.
What was expected to be a very bad night for Democrats turned into a rousing success for them. The final balance of power is 55 Democrats – 45 Republicans.
Having guided their team to a two- seat victory, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Majority Whip Sen. Dick Durbin (Ill.), and Democratic Policy Committee Chairman Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.) all were re-elected to the top leadership posts in the Senate Democratic Conference.
Though the Republican Party had
a less than successful election night, its Senate leadership remains basically intact. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) was re-elected. Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) was elevated to the number two post, Minority Whip, replacing a retiring Senator, and Sen.
John Thune (S.D.) was re-elected to the number three post, Republican Senate Conference Chair.
For our industry, the past two years have been a struggle for pro-club initiatives in the Senate. As we look forward to the start of the 113th Congress, it is clear there will be a more emboldened Senate Majority Leader. That being the case, it is expected that the Senate will still be resistant to pro-club initiatives in the months and years to come.
On the Horizon
During the weeks leading up to the election, NCA was fully engaged in the political process with hopes of making Washington work better for our members and our industry. With the elections over, we are, once again, concentrating on how to protect, defend and advance the interest and well-being of our members on Capitol Hill.
If the past is any indicator, there will be much that our industry must be wary of coming from Congress. In 2013, tax reform, immigration reform and energy reform will dominate the legislative process, which means we will be very busy on many fronts.
There seems to be a growing sense on both sides of the Capitol building that compromise may not be a dirty word any longer. With luck, Congress may actually accomplish something in the months ahead. Anything that causes more open debate and more respect for ideas emanating from both sides of the aisle is a good thing for our industry. Let’s hope that happens.