Water
Congress adjourned for its annual August recess period after a flurry of negotiations and successfully passed significant legislation including the so- called “Inflation Reduction Act,” which most would admit does little, if anything, to reduce inflation. While on the surface, it may seem the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had little effect on clubs, there were provisions in it related to drought mitigation efforts in the Southwest. I had the opportunity to visit with the Greater Southwest Chapter of CMAA in August and water issues were front and center during the meeting. It just so happened that the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation announced the day I spoke that water allocations to Arizona would be reduced by 21%. The National Club Association (NCA) will be engaged with clubs in the Southwest as negotiations continue between upper and lower basin states that depend on the Colorado River for much of their water.
Funding
With the number of legislative days before the mid-term election dwindling, it doesn’t appear Congress will be doing much other than making sure the lights stay on in the federal government, and even that will be on a temporary basis. In what has become tradition, Congress will pass a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the federal government, but the question is how long that resolution will last. My sources on the Appropriations Committee tell me the CR is likely to get us to early December with a deal being reached later that month.
Labor
The regulatory calendar has been picking up lately and the Department of Labor’s (DOL’s) Wage and Hour Division has most likely issued updates to the overtime threshold and independent contractor status between the writing of this column and when the magazine goes out. NCA met with the DOL to explain how increasing the overtime threshold could negatively affect some club employees, particularly those who earn commissions on instruction. Current rules allow only 10% of earnings from commissions to count toward the overtime threshold, which could mean some relatively high earners at clubs could be reclassified as non-exempt workers and eligible for overtime. This reclassification could actually lead to reduced hours and reduced income potential for these employees. NCA joined other allied organizations opposing changes to the independent contractor rules earlier this year and it is likely this rule has been published between this writing and publication of Club Director. We will continue to stay on top of regulatory action and provide NCA members with the latest information.
The National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) recently proposed changes in determining joint employer status that, if finalized in their current form, could have a significant impact on businesses. The proposed rule appears to make it much easier for the government to determine that a company jointly employs another company’s workers and rescinds the joint employer standard adopted under the Trump Administration, which NCA supported. Employees would be considered jointly employed if the two businesses co-determine the essential terms and conditions of employment, such as scheduling, wages and benefits.
The proposed rule was published on September 7 and will be open for public comment for 60 days. NCA will join with allied organizations in filing comments on the proposed rule.
Mid-terms
The mid-term elections are finally upon us and my how the landscape has changed since the summer edition of Club Director. Although President Biden’s approval ratings remain low, congressional Democrats have been outperforming the head of their party in the generic ballot. As I’ve mentioned in previous columns, the generic ballot is one of the tools I use to get a feel for the direction the electorate is heading. The poll gives likely voters the choice of either a Democrat or Republican if the election were held today. Democrats have slowly eroded the Republican advantage in the poll for the last several months. In fact, this erosion effectively began after the Supreme Court issued its ruling overturning Roe v. Wade and returned the question of abortion back to state legislatures. The Democrats’ recent legislative successes can also account for some of their recovery, but the abortion issue seems to be giving them the most traction. Whatever your position on the issue, it is a motivator in elections on all sides and will no doubt be featured in many campaign ads. All things considered, it still appears likely the House will be under Republican control in 2023, but unless things change substantially, their margin in the House is likely not to be as wide as it could have been. The Senate is a completely different story.
Key Senate Races
Generally, candidates for elective office need to be affable, knowledgeable and relatively good on their feet. This is doubly true for Senate candidates. Unfortunately for Republicans, a few of their candidates in key states are coming up a bit short.
In what should be a very winnable race in Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker is underperforming and doesn’t appear to be ready for primetime. As an ardent Minnesota Vikings fan whose beloved franchise suffered for years due to a bad trade with the Dallas Cowboys to acquire the running back, this is not entirely surprising. I’ve often said being a Vikings fan is committing oneself to a life of chronic disappointment and unless Walker can gain some yards after contact, Georgia Republicans are going to question whether he was ready for the starting lineup.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans are trying to hold the seat currently occupied by Senator Pat Toomey (R) and once again have a candidate in Dr. Mehmet Oz, whose polling numbers are showing weakness. Questions about his candidacy began immediately upon his announcement and appear to be sticking. True or not, Democrats have done a good job of defining Oz as an out-of-touch carpetbagger and the non-traditional, seemingly anti-Trump Democrat Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman has done his best to portray himself as an everyman candidate for the Senate connecting with voters despite some pretty out-there views on issues and strange background. The Lt. governor had what appears to have been a fairly serious stroke earlier this year that still seems to affect his cognition and speech. Fetterman was off the campaign trail for a couple of months and is back campaigning at press time, so time will tell whether voters will have the confidence to give him a promotion to the Senate. Dr. Oz will need to connect with voters outside the metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and trim the margins in those cities and suburbs to have any chance of getting the votes he needs to prevail in November. A recent Trafalgar Group poll had Fetterman leading Oz by four points.
The one bright spot for Senate Republicans is in Nevada, where Democrat incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is polling well below 50% against challenger Adam Laxalt. One recent poll had Laxalt leading Cortez Masto by three points. Nevada has been a tough state for Republicans in recent elections and the fact that an incumbent is below 50% shows the race is winnable for a credible challenger, a category Laxalt fits. It’s difficult to beat an incumbent, but if Republicans take control of the Senate, Nevada figures into the math on getting to a majority.
Usually by this time in an election year, I have a pretty good feel for which way the tight races are going to tilt, but there are issues these campaigns are going to face this year that could completely change the momentum, because the electorate is so evenly split. One snide remark, a gaffe in answering a question on a sensitive topic, poor debate performance, or a really bad television ad can change the complexion of a campaign in an instant, particularly when candidates who have never before run for office are on the ballot. After all, there’s a reason we’re not talking about the reelection of Sen. Christine O’Donnell (R-DE) who (in)famously had to run an ad to proclaim she is not a witch.
Caveats aside, Democrats have a chance to increase their number to 52 seats and a clear majority if their incumbents hold. All they need after that is to defeat Senator Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) and flip the seat in Pennsylvania, which is a very realistic scenario. It would be a rare occurrence for the party occupying the White House to pick up seats in the Senate, but it is very possible this year based on candidate quality alone.
Joe Trauger is NCA’s interim president and CEO. He can be reached at [email protected].