WHEN 2021 BEGAN, there was great anticipation and some anxiety about the arrival of a new administration and new leadership in the Senate under the Democratic party. For the first time since 2009 there was unified control of Congress, the Senate and the White House with a dramatically different agenda from the previous four years. The margins in the House had narrowed considerably and the Senate was evenly di-vided. The tumult we experienced in 2020 with the election, coronavirus lockdowns, a wholesale shuttering of most of our economy, and social unrest in major cities around the country, including the Capitol building itself, raised questions about what and how much could really get done. The American Rescue Plan that passed in March continued ongoing efforts to provide support for an ailing economy, including two items of particular import to clubs: Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) eligibility and ex-tension and enhancement of the Employee Retention Tax Credit (ERTC). For many clubs, the ERTC was a tremendous boost that allowed them to keep staff engaged and working through 2020 and the first half of 2021. Since then, Congress has been mired in debates over how much to spend on infra-structure—which passed in November—and how far the budget reconciliation bill will go to enact key priorities of the progressive wing of the Democratic party. The recon-ciliation bill is currently in its third act and the ending hasn’t been written yet, but with legislative days waning and must-pass measures like raising the debt ceiling and funding the government stacking up, it appears the final act will take place in 2022—if at all.
Campaign War Chests
As we begin the 2022 election year in ear-nest, in addition to the horse-race coverage over who’s up and who’s down, there will be discussion about how much money is being raised by candidates. On the last point, the popular perspective is that there is too much money in politics and campaigns cost too much. I hold a different, somewhat un-conventional view on the matter. According to a CNN report, campaigns for the U.S. House and Senate spent a combined $5.7 billion in 2018. Campaigns for the Senate and House are indeed expensive, and we can count on those costs growing every cycle—yes, even politics is subject to inflation. Nearly $6 billion is obviously a large sum of money when looked at singularly and without context. Consider that as a nation we spend more than $6.5 billion on salty snacks every year—and that only includes the ones we purchase at convenience stores! The annual marketing budget for Coca-Co-la, perhaps the most widely known brand in the U.S., is roughly $4.3 billion with the aim to maintain market share and presence of mind among consumers.
The point I’m driving at is that when examined in context, one could make an argument that $5.7 billion for 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats every two years is relatively inexpensive. In fact, it averages to roughly $17.27 per person to determine who our elected leadership will be every two years. I’m sure some readers will guffaw, but when viewed with these points in mind, I would argue that $6 billion every two years is a bargain.
Through its political action committee, ClubPAC, the National Club Association (NCA) is gearing up for the elections in 2022, and since September, the political landscape has shifted quite dramatically—as demonstrated by the elections in New Jersey and Virginia. It appears voters continue to be frustrated with Washington and increasingly believe Congress and the White House are not addressing the issues they care about; inflation, the economy, education, crime and the border are the top issues according to recent polls. While the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill has a decent amount of support among the public, it’s not likely to move the needle. Ten to 12 months is a political lifetime and Demo-crats will have to begin getting their message out to voters to turn things around, but the sentiment seems to be slipping away from them and toward Republicans at the moment.
Polling the People
One of the key indicators I like to watch is the generic choice for Congress. The gist of the poll is if an election were held right now, would the voter’s choice be for a Democrat or a Republican. Historically, if the results of this poll show Republicans down between 4 to 5 points it will be a good year for Republicans. Democrats typically need to be above 7 or 8 points ahead in order to maintain or improve their numbers in the House. Recent polling shows Republicans leading the generic ballot by an average of 3.4 points and one poll, Rassmussen Reports, has Republicans up by 13 points among likely voters. This large a lead for Republicans has never been recorded since this poll began 40 years ago—not even in 1994 when Republicans took control of the House for the first time in 40 years. Again, we are a long way from November 8, 2022, but Republican leaders I’ve talked to in the House are increasingly confident they will be wielding the gavels in 2023. Only time will tell and NCA will be on top of it all as things unfold.
Joe Trauger is NCA’s vice president of government relations. He can be reached at [email protected] or 202-822-9822.