While the death of a member-elect and administration appointments triggered special elections for a few House seats, we now have a fairly good view on what the next two years will look like legislatively and regulatorily. Democrats achieved their goal of securing the White House, taking over the Senate and holding their majority in the House.
The Senate is evenly divided at 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris breaking the tie and handing the gavels to Democrats. Perhaps the biggest surprises are Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) winning her race by 9 points when not one poll showed her in the lead for the entire year and Republicans losing both Senate seats in Georgia.
The House of Representatives will remain under control of the Democratic Party, but Republicans outperformed expectations and flipped 14 seats previously held by Democrats. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has been reelected by her caucus to serve another term as Speaker, but with a majority narrowed to 222 votes she may have some difficulty reaching the required 218 for a majority to pass legislation over the next two years.
Policy Impact
As mentioned above, with a Biden administration there will be a significant shift in policy from a regulatory standpoint as there is any time the White House shifts from one party’s control to the other. Importantly, with Democrats holding a slim majority in the Senate, they now have an opportunity to review regulations issued by the Trump administration under the Congressional Review Act (CRA). The CRA is a speedier way of vitiating regulations of the previous administration that was adopted as part of the Republican’s Contract With America back in 1994. To the extent the incoming Biden administration would like to change the regulatory course in areas like labor, environment and immigration, they will be able to use the CRA to avoid the lengthier notice and comment rulemaking process. However, as we’ve seen from President Obama and President Trump, there are many things he can achieve through Executive Orders, though the power is limited in scope and effectiveness.
With a new Biden administration we can expect the Department of Labor (DOL), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to quickly make moves to block, undo or reinstate regulations the Trump administration had adopted or done away with over the past four years. While the more robust proposals Biden campaigned on would require congressional action, even with Democrats taking the majority in the Senate, some moderate Democrats may temper progressive demands. Still, there is much a Biden administration can do through the regulatory framework. Immigration changes made under the Trump administration will likely be rolled back, which would provide some measure of stability for those clubs utilizing seasonal worker visas. Other measures, such as changes to labor and environmental regulations will likely take some time to change course. It appears the next two years will be very active on the regulatory side and the legislative calendar is likely to be busy as well. NCA is ready and will continue delivering the private club community’s message to legislators and regulators.
Joe Trauger is NCA’s vice president of government relations. He can be reached at [email protected] or 202-822-9822.