Situational Awareness
The House and Senate are both in session this week. The House will continue its work on fiscal year 2021 appropriations bills and the Senate will consider nominations.
COVID-19 Relief Negotiations Continue
Negotiations over another relief package continued over the weekend with no concrete results. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows met on Saturday for several hours, but did not resolve disagreements about key issues such as unemployment assistance, liability protections, aid to schools and state and local governments. The $600 per week additional unemployment insurance payment expired on Friday after last minute attempts to extend the payments failed. According to press reports and private conversations NCA has had with staff on the Hill, the parties remain far from reaching an agreement, but talks will continue this week. If an agreement is reached, the earliest it could be considered is late this week or early next.
2020 Elections: The House
All 435 House seats are up for election in 2020. Democrats overperformed in the 2018 elections and are looking to retain and expand their majority while Republicans are seeking gains to set them up for a potential take over in 2022. Currently, Democrats are favored to carry 214 seats and Republicans are favored in 190 with 31 seats up for grabs. If accurate, this means Democrats only need to win four of 31 races in order to maintain their majority in the House.
As we near the election in November, I will be watching key races in New York, Pennsylvania and Texas. If Republicans can gain momentum in these races it will set the table for further gains in 2022. If Democrats can build momentum in these races it will make it more difficult for Republicans to retake the majority in 2022.
I, along with many political pundits, believe the odds are against House Republicans gaining ground this year, but House races are sometimes difficult to handicap due to a paucity of good polling and other factors. In generic polling, voters indicate they favor Democrats 48.2% to Republicans 40%. Even in a good year for Republicans, they tend to lag Democrats in generic polling by two to four points. It’s difficult to gauge the effect the presidential election will have on individual House races, but with 70.3% of voters believing the country is on the wrong track the national mood is as bad as it has been in quite some time. This could lead to increased volatility in elections across the country and an increase in absentee and mail-in voting could add to the volatility.
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Washington Weekly Update is a benefit of your NCA membership. If you have any questions, would like further information on these or any other issues affecting the club industry or would like to get more involved with our advocacy efforts, please contact me at [email protected] or 202-822-9822.