Situational Awareness
The House will not be in session until after election week. The Senate is in a short session this week to clear the Supreme Court nominee, Judge Amy Coney Barrett.
It’s Likely President Biden
While the Trump campaign has filed a number of lawsuits in key battleground states and not all the votes have been tallied, it appears former Vice President Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States. The Biden – Harris ticket has been hovering at 264 electoral votes since early Wednesday morning, but it is expected they will exceed the required 270 electoral votes this afternoon or evening. Expect recounts in a number of states. In a strange turn of events, Florida seems to be a model of how to conduct elections.
Republicans Hold Senate For Now
Despite a flood of hundreds of millions of dollars flowing into Democratic challengers’ coffers, it appears Republicans will retain control of the Senate. Republicans hold 50 seats and two seats in Georgia will go into runoff elections that conclude on January 5, 2021. Incumbent Senator David Perdue narrowly missed the required 50% threshold against challenger Jon Ossoff. Perdue currently has 49.8% of the vote to Ossoff’s 47.8.
In the special election to finish the term of former Senator Johnny Isakson who retired due to declining health, three candidates lead the jungle primary to be the two candidates to face off in a runoff election on January 5, 2021. Lutheran Pastor Raphael Warnock will face incumbent Senator Kelly Loeffler. Loeffler was appointed to the seat by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. Loeffler fended off a challenge from Congressman Doug Collins.
Perhaps the most surprising result of 2020 is the Senate race in Maine. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) was reelected with more than 50% despite never polling in the lead over the last ten months. Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon raised record amounts of money and polled in the lead by as much as ten points all year.
Republicans Gain Seats in House
Republicans defied the odds, polls and spending to add seats to their ranks despite predictions Democrats could gain as many as 15 seats to their majority. Democrats will retain control of the House, but their majority will be narrowed by at least six seats. Roughly 34 House contests have yet to be called. Republicans picked up two seats in Florida, at least one seat in Iowa with another yet to be called in which the Republican holds a lead. Republicans also picked up seats in Michigan, Minnesota, Oklahoma and South Carolina.
State Legislatures Are Important Too
Every ten years, states redraw their districts according to the census results, which places added importance on the results of state legislative races and which party controls the majority. Seven states have a single seat in the House, which renders redistricting moot. State Legislatures are responsible for drawing districts in 36 states and ten states have independent commissions. The remaining four states have commissions comprised of partisan elected officials.
Going into the elections on November 3, Republicans had majorities in 59 state chambers and Democrats held majorities in 39. At the moment, it appears Republicans have gained majorities in the New Hampshire House and Senate and another three chambers are hanging in the balance: Alaska House, Arizona House and Arizona Senate. Texas Democrats had high hopes of flipping control in the Texas House, but fell short.
Election Impact on Policy
Although the results have yet to be finalized, it appears Vice President Joe Biden will eventually be declared president-elect, which means we will have a significant shift in policy direction from a regulatory standpoint. NCA adopted a policy agenda last year and is focused on five areas: Taxes, Labor, Immigration, Environment and Health Care. With Republicans poised to retain the majority in the Senate, it will likely affect who president-elect Biden is considering for cabinet appointments as they will require confirmation in the Senate. Republican control of the Senate also blocks a pathway Democrats could have employed to overturn regulatory actions of the Trump Administration through the Congressional Review Act. As a result, a Biden Administration will have to go through the lengthy notice and comment process in order to overturn or modify regulations adopted or eliminated under the Trump Administration.
Coronavirus Stimulus Dynamics Shift
Since March, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has been the point negotiator with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on coronavirus aid and stimulus packages. It appears Senate Majority Leader has inserted himself into the negotiations and claimed lead status for Republicans in crafting the next package of relief. This shift in dynamics will either make it more difficult to reach an agreement or lead to a standoff that will drift into 2021. Speaker Pelosi and McConnell are very far apart in terms of policy and overall size of any relief package. McConnell has twice attempted to pass a relief package totaling $500 billion, while Pelosi has passed packages totaling $3 trillion and $2.4 trillion. NCA will be actively engaged in this process in order to advance our three priorities: PPP eligibility for all 501(c) entities, expanded and enhanced Employee Retention Tax Credit, and state and local assistance.