With just a few months before the election on Nov. 3, 2020 President Trump finds himself in familiar territory as the underdog in the race. While national polls can shed some light on popular opinion around the country at a given moment in time, our electoral system depends on how the race for president shapes up in the individual states. By either measure, Trump is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by surprising margins and in some states that are key to a second term.
States Trump carried in 2016 like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina are trending away from the incumbent and narrowing the path to four more years. A look at RealClear Politics polling averages for those states, which make up 61 votes in the electoral college, shows a significant shift in attitude toward the president over the last three and a half years. In politics a month is a lifetime, but the window is closing on opportunities for Trump to present his best argument for another term— particularly among the suburban population that have for years been a fairly reliable constituency for Republicans. Voters in these areas cite the president’s combativeness and handling of the pandemic as factors in their decision to support Biden. Ongoing concerns about the economy is also an area where the President seems to be losing his edge.
There is still time for the president to turn things around and he may do so, but the path to a second term looks increasingly in doubt. According to RealClear Politics data, if all electoral votes are determined based on where polling is right now, Biden would win the election with 352 electoral votes to Trump’s 186. This has Senate Republicans worried about an unpopular president at the head of their ticket weighing them down and they’re right to be worked up about it.
Republicans now control the Senate with 53 votes. Democrats hold 45 seats with two independents that caucus with them. Realistically, Republicans have only one race, Alabama, where they can potentially take away a seat from Democrats Incumbent Senator Doug Jones (D-Ala.) won a special election after the Senator Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) became the U.S. Attorney General. While Alabama is a reliably red state, the Republican candidate, Roy Moore, was mired in controversy. This year, Republicans have tapped former Auburn Head Football Coach Tommy Tuberville and appear poised retake the seat.
Democrats face much brighter prospects in a number of other states. Out of 35 races this year, Republicans are defending 23 seats and Democrats just 12. Of the seven tossup races that are too close to call, six of them are held by Republicans and one by the Democrats. The Arizona and Georgia seats are held by Republican women and of the two, Arizona’s incumbent Senator Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) looks to be in trouble against her challenger, astronaut Mark Kelly (D). Recent polls have consistently shown him up by about five to eight points, but expect the race to be a close one.
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst (R) faces a tough opponent in Theresa Greenfield (D) who has raised a significant amount of money to mount a challenge. Ernst has also done well in fundraising and the polls are neck and neck. This race is as pure of a tossup as there is and it’s possible we won’t know who won the race for days after November 3.
First term Senator Thom Tillis (R-N. Carolina) faces attorney and State Senator Cal Cunningham in what will be another close contest in North Carolina. President Trump narrowly carried the state in 2016 and polls show Cunningham up by an average of 4 points thus far in the race. North Carolina tends to break late in the race toward Republicans. It’stoo early to call, but expect this one to be tight as well.
Probably the most vulnerable Republican in the Senate is Susan Collins (R-Maine) and her opponent Sara Gideon (D) was the beneficiary of a large sum of campaign funds directed at the race due to the senator’s vote in favor of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Collins won reelection in 2014 by a margin of 37 points. In 2008, a bad year for Republicans, she won reelection by 23 points. Collins is a good candidate and has a track record of being a moderate in the Senate and is well liked, but recent polls have shown a slight edge to Gideon, though well within the margin of error.
Colorado Senator Cory Gardner is also facing a steep climb for reelection against challenger John Hickenlooper (D). Hickenlooper is the former Governor of Colorado and was one of the 19 candidates for the presidential nomination this year. He dropped out and decided to run for the Senate instead. Gardner won election in 2014 edging out then incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D) by 2.5 points. That was a good year for Republicans and in 2016 the Democratic candidate for president carried the state by nearly five points. Colorado has been trending blue for the last few cycles, which makes the climb for Gardner even more difficult. This is race where President Trump’s performance could significantly influence the results.
On the House side, all 435 seats are up for election, though only about 31 are actually in play with Democrats holding 19 and Republicans 12 of those tossup seats. Republicans lost a number of seats in California in 2018 so they are looking to reclaim at least two of those and retain one seat they took back in a special election to replace Congresswoman Katie Hill (D) who resigned amid a scandal related to her relationships with staff. Incumbent Congressman Mike Garcia (R) won the seat with almost 55% of the vote. He will face his opponent in the special election again in November.
Other states Democrats capitalized on such as Iowa and Pennsylvania in 2018 each have three races in the tossup column. Republicans have four seats in danger in Texas where President Trump is not performing well in polls. All told, I expect Democrats will hold the House, but their margin may be diminished.
As with nearly everything else, the coronavirus is affecting campaigns and will likely impact voting. Calls for mail-in voting have raised questions about what we can expect for turn out and campaigns depend on getting their voters to the polls. No matter how states decide to conduct their elections, we’re likely to see a significant uptick in absentee and early voting, which means we could see many races undecided until days or even weeks after November 3. The year 2020 surely has been one for the books.
Joe Trauger is NCA’s vice president of government relations. He can be reached at 202-822-9822 or [email protected].